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MarkusRamikin comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, February 2015, chapter 111 - Less Wrong
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Imagine that Eliezer has 100 possible ways to complete this puzzle. 25% means that the combined weight of all the other possibilities outweighs the one I've outlined, but I am still privileging the one significantly over a typical possibility. (However, lerjj has convinced me that I was most likely wrong to do so.)
Right. What I was thinking, except for some reason I had a complete block on putting that thought into words. Thanks.