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TobyBartels comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, February 2015, chapter 112 - Less Wrong
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Could both the decision to give her the potion and the different Voldie modus operendi be caused by the same older event?
It seems likely (the one principle point of departure) but not certain (not a single point of departure). In any case, that doesn't explain the centaur's warning.