Right - but how low do you think the probability is, and what's the best action it displaces?
Sorry - hadn't logged in for a while. I thought it would have vanishingly low probability of working, though I don't believe that it displaces any other action likely to work (though it does displace saving a person if all else fails, which has nontrivial value). Having said that, curiously enough it seems that this particular suggestion WAS implemented in the official solution, so I guess that was that. :)
This is a new thread to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality and anything related to it. This thread is intended for discussing chapter 113.
There is a site dedicated to the story at hpmor.com, which is now the place to go to find the authors notes and all sorts of other goodies. AdeleneDawner has kept an archive of Author’s Notes. (This goes up to the notes for chapter 76, and is now not updating. The authors notes from chapter 77 onwards are on hpmor.com.)
IMPORTANT -- From the end of chapter 113: