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Tenoke comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, March 2015, chapter 114 + chapter 115 - Less Wrong
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While I am inclined to agree with the general spirit of your comment, I think you're being a little harsh. This is still miles more believable than much of Rowling's work. For one thing, recall that her Voldemort achieved the same terrifying results during the Wizarding War while being an idiot all the time.
Yes HPMOR has been generally more believable, except for the one scene that matters in the whole book. At any rate, I am not sure if defeating Voldemort by use of an artefact - the Elder Wand is any less believable than using transfigured nanowires in secret against a much smarter version of Voldemort who forgets to use shields/wards/attention in order to catch harry this one time, and lets him have his wand when he doesn't need it.
I wouldn't make that assumption. There are several chapters left and a bunch of things left unresolved, some of which seem like they could be important. Is he going to make further progress on defeating Death? Will we discover why there's a prophecy that he'll tear apart the stars, empty the skies, and end the world?
Maybe not; there might be nothing left now but wrap-up. But I don't think it's a foregone conclusion.