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gjm comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, March 2015, chapter 114 + chapter 115 - Less Wrong
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I assume he means: we are not in a position to have any confidence that a particular proposed magical solution is actually a credible one, at least from what we know that's internal to the story. (External things like what's been most clearly foreshadowed might give good reason for confidence.)
That's exactly what I mean. We don't know enough about magic to say what Harry or Voldemort's capabilities are -- the whole thing is a black box. It's not a satisfying answer to the puzzle (for me) and not much of a testimony to "rationality" as a way of thinking at all -- as presented this is about knowing genre conventions, not about superior or inferior thinking. All of the AI Box solutions I saw were much more pro-"rationality" by my lights.