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Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, March 2015, chapter 114 + chapter 115 - Less Wrong
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Comments (423)
I do remark that Dumbledore was unable to detect Harry doing an ongoing Transfiguration while he looked into Harry's prison cell in Azkaban.
I admit I did forget about that specific incident.
However, Dumbledore going cell to cell in Azkaban and Lord Voldemort attempting to subvert a prophecy predicting the end of the world in a fixed, controlled location seem like two very different things from a reader perspective.
It is also implied that Dumbledore did sense Harry's magic - at least on some level.
But he dismisses this because he is looking for a wizard strong enough to break into Azkaban and free Bellatrix Black. Lord Voldemort on the other hand, should be immediately and unconditionally suspicious of any and all magic he senses from Harry Potter.
That's Dumbledore reading Harry's mana level, not sensing whether Harry is casting spells.
An excellent point. I was going to say that Dumbledore was also unable to detect Harry's horror at Hermione's injuries "through the link that existed between the two of them, the resonance in their magic," nor did he feel "the boy exterminate his enemy in seconds." But on inspection this doesn't actually say he could feel the spells Harry was using. And Harry's scar does not appear to react to e.g the repair of Hermione's body or the summons for the Death Eaters. The doom-sense could have a lot to do with both the strength of the magic and the degree to which it inherently clashes with the senser's inclinations or goals.
To me, it seemed that it scaled with their current mindsets and actions, with stronger being the more they contrasted.
Consider how strongly it was felt when Harry's "anti-death-ness" was particularly strong (e.g. after Harry killed his first Dementor) or when Voldemort's desecration of death was higher than normal (e.g. when he makes Inferi).
Inversely, look at weak the feeling is when their current mindsets are not so opposed (e.g. when Quirrell was in zombie-mode in ch 49, because he practically lacked a mind at those times). Though, the zombie-mode in ch 26 was still fairly strong, which could imply that zombie-mode isn't as big of a determinant as I initially suspected. It might well be another piece of evidence towards the importance mindset, however, as that ride ends with Quirrell leaving to "set something into motion," which is certainly ominous coming from Lord Voldemort and may well have been something Harry was inherently set against. I don't remember if we found/figured out what he was doing there.
Taking this into account, the lack of doom-sense during the transfiguration would simply be there not being much of a mindset left.
Though I fear I may have strayed from the original thrust of your post.