Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, March 2015, chapter 116 - Less Wrong
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Oh, trust me, they can't discern the truth from wild rumors even if it's normal. (I am speaking of real life, here.)
To be fair, it's really hard to figure out WTF is going on when humans are involved. Their reasoning is the result of multiple motivations and a vast array of potential reasoning errors. If you don't believe me try the following board games with your friends: Avalon, Coup, Sheriff of Nottingham, Battlestar Galactica, or any that involve secrets and lying.
There's a Battlestar Galactica board game? :D
Yes, yes there is :). http://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/37111/battlestar-galactica
Mmhmm. I find it quite fun, despite having no familiarity with the show.