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Decius comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, March 2015, chapter 116 - Less Wrong
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It's not Perenelle, it's still Baba Yaga, who killed a sixth-year dark witch, stole her identity, and faked her own death.
The odds of that being true are steadily falling, if only because there aren't many chapters left in which to have that revelation, and it's hard to see how it would improve the plot at this point.
On the contrary, tthe odds are increasing, since we're running out of opportunity for this deduction from the text to be contradicted. (^_^)