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imuli comments on Plane crashes - Less Wrong
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Your question is: after an airliner accident, how often do any of the next n flights following the same route also have an accident?
Guessing (2/3 confidence) lower than the base rate.
It wasn't "the same" route, but the 9/11 attacks have skewed the coincidence rates.
You'd expect intelligent adversaries to hit and hit again quickly, before the means of their attack were found out and countermeasures were implemented.
Close. If the accident is completely unexplained, as it often is immediately following an accident, shouldn't the risk be substantially higher immediately following the accident and then rapidly decay back to baseline as more information becomes available?
Yeah, that was my thought too - after an accident, everyone is more careful and diligent, because there will be a search for someone to blame, and that's really not a good time to be asleep at the wheel, whatever your level of responsibility.