IlyaShpitser comments on Is Scott Alexander bad at math? - Less Wrong

31 Post author: JonahSinick 04 May 2015 05:11AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (219)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: IlyaShpitser 06 May 2015 10:45:31AM *  1 point [-]

People do think of conditional probabilities that way, one just has to be careful not to conflate with p(IF event1 THEN event2), which is a probability of a disjunction, and quite different from p(event2 | event1). Conditioning is kind of weird, Simpsons paradox is a paradox because we are really bad at processing what conditioning actually means.