wobster109 comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, March 2015, chapter 120 - Less Wrong
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My understanding was Lucius came home and "found" Narcissa burned in the remnants of the house, or at least remembered doing so. It just doesn't make sense that a clever, cunning man (who brought Draco to see Death Note and criticized the plot) would find no trace of his wife and, knowing Dumbledore to be famously soft-hearted, would just unquestioningly believe that story.