Epictetus comments on Twenty basic rules for intelligent money management - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (51)
I have heard this before, and I'm still confused about it. They would need to do all the work of obtaining good evidence entangled with reality, and processing that evidence coherently, just to anticorrelate that reliably. Why aren't there actively managed funds that hire people with MBAs and ask them which stocks to buy, and then do the opposite of whatever they say?
I have a few theories. One is that short selling is difficult, so you can't make money as easily by predicting a stock price dropping as you could by it rising. As a result, predicting it dropping pays less, and is easier to do. Actively managed funds can therefore predict it, and use this to consistently lose money.
Another one is that actively managed funds are more open to embezzlement, and that a few companies claiming they bought different stocks after the fact managed to drive down the average enough to make it statistically significant.
There's also the whole thing about the market not being quite efficient. If you can outperform the market, you can use the same strategy with more money in order to make more money, up until you start trying to buy and sell enough stock that you actually change the market. As a result, the people who are best at predicting the market will control it, and it will be efficient. But it has to be just inefficient enough to pay them enough to keep doing it. The same amount of money would have to come from other people trying to predict the market and failing. As a result, an average person would have a small expected loss that goes to those people, and if the actively managed funds are just hiring average people, they'll lose money.
Think about it this way: investors buying index funds are doing about as well as the market. Active traders who beat the market do so basically at the expense of other active traders who do worse. The aggregate performance of all active traders won't beat the market. However, there are extra expenses (overhead, fees, etc.) to active trading, so we actually expect active traders to perform worse.
The second issue is taxes. A passive investor gets to pay the long-term capital gains tax after the stock is sold. Someone who actively trades is getting hit with a short-term capital gains tax (paid every year), which is considerably higher and will positively murder one's compound interest rate.