gjm comments on Argument Screens Off Authority - Less Wrong

35 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 14 December 2007 12:05AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (80)

Sort By: Old

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: gjm 12 July 2015 12:59:01AM 3 points [-]

More likely they were pointing out the logical implications [...]

That is not the impression I remember getting, but since I don't even remember where I saw this you shouldn't trust my memory much.

the alarmist position was that it would happen in 20 years [...] that was roughly 20 years ago.

Here is an IPCC report from 20 years ago. (Warning: large PDF file.) It predicted a 2 degC rise, relative to a baseline in 1990, by 2100.

The report mentions that its predecessor in 1990 gave a more pessimistic best estimate. Here is that report. (Warning: large PDF file.) Its best estimate (with much uncertainty stated) was about 0.3 degC per decade "during the next century"; according to that estimate, 2 degC of warming would take about 70 years.

So, please, whose alarmist position was that there would be 2degC of rise in the next 20 years, and why should we care?

(Thanks for the ~20 downvotes, by the way. You're a real pleasure to talk to.)