gjm comments on Argument Screens Off Authority - Less Wrong

35 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 14 December 2007 12:05AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Article Navigation

Comments (80)
Tags: bayesian philosophy politics

Comments (80)

Sort By: Old

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: VoiceOfRa 12 July 2015 12:27:24AM 0 points [-]

My guess is that in another 5-10 years it may have switched again to "well, of course it's happening, it's our fault, and it's likely to be really bad, and the answer would have been to cut fossil-fuel use, but it's too late now so we might as well give up" which I've actually seen (I think here on LW, but it might have been over on Hacker News or somewhere of the kind).

I doubt anyone was advocating this position seriously. More likely they were pointing out the logical implications of taking the alarmist position, with its ever shifting timeline for when disaster happens, seriously.

"do experts agree that AGW is real and likely to produce more than a 2degC rise over the next 50 years?"

I remember when the alarmist position was that it would happen in 20 years. Come to think of it, that was roughly 20 years ago.

Comment author: gjm 12 July 2015 12:59:01AM 3 points [-]

More likely they were pointing out the logical implications [...]

That is not the impression I remember getting, but since I don't even remember where I saw this you shouldn't trust my memory much.

the alarmist position was that it would happen in 20 years [...] that was roughly 20 years ago.

Here is an IPCC report from 20 years ago. (Warning: large PDF file.) It predicted a 2 degC rise, relative to a baseline in 1990, by 2100.

The report mentions that its predecessor in 1990 gave a more pessimistic best estimate. Here is that report. (Warning: large PDF file.) Its best estimate (with much uncertainty stated) was about 0.3 degC per decade "during the next century"; according to that estimate, 2 degC of warming would take about 70 years.

So, please, whose alarmist position was that there would be 2degC of rise in the next 20 years, and why should we care?

(Thanks for the ~20 downvotes, by the way. You're a real pleasure to talk to.)

Powered by Reddit Powered by Reddit