"Politics is the mind-killer" is still true as ever, and I fear that the linked article may be suffering from this. For instance, breathless statements like:
After replacing condescension with conversation, the left could then present a plan that was actionable and concrete. Instead of trying to square the circle by promising to keep the settlements and bring peace and maintain security and foster goodwill all at the same time, it should be blunt about what it really believes.
seem to imply a kind of 'us vs. them' mentality where the left is a coherent body with a uniform set of beliefs. And statements lacking evidence, like:
They remain unconvinced because they see those ghoulish ISIL videos and they know that it’s only a matter of time before the turmoil spreading everywhere from Libya to Syria knocks at their door.
presume voter intentions and have no basis in what is known about ISIS. The article is mostly statements like this, so I won't bother quoting all of them.
There are plenty of good, rational, evidence-based articles on movements of public opinion. I'm curious as to why you decided to link this one instead.
That's why I recommended the first bit, but not the part about current politics-- I should have been more emphatic.
This is an analysis of the Yom Kippur war (Egypt vs. Israel, 1973)-- the Israelis were interested in how Egypt managed a surprise attack, and it turned out that too many Israelis believed that the Egyptians would only attack if they had rockets which could reach deep into Israel. The Egyptians didn't have those rockets, so the Israeli government ignored evidence that the Egyptians were massing military forces on the border.
The rest of the article is analysis of the recent Israeli election, but to put it mildly, an election has much less in the way of well-defined factors than a surprise military attack, so it's much harder to say whether any explanation is correct.
I'm sure there are many examples of plausible theories keeping people from getting to the correct explanation for a long time. Any suggestions? Also, is there a standard name for this mistake?