= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
Ander comments on Bitcoin value and small probability / high impact arguments - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (50)
Some random comments:
Theoretically, no, practically, it still is. Humans are humans and the whole history and, um, aura of gold makes a "simple equilibrium flip" not very likely in the near future.
Measuring Bitcoin against "gold market cap" is dangerous because gold has uses which Bitcoin cannot replace. For example, traditionally most of the wealth of Indian families (those who have wealth, of course) have been kept as gold, specifically golden jewelry. Bitcoin will not replace that use. Another big advantage of gold is anonymity which Bitcoin will not be able to replicate either.
Why do you think so?
And what exactly is the reference class that you put Bitcoin into?
Don't think in terms of point estimates, think it terms of full distributions (which here will not be symmetric).
We are entering nonsense territory here, as the set up implies that someone who can torture ^^^3^^^ people for fun still need something from you and, moreover, needs your free and willing consent. Recall that the original Pascal Mugger is Omega and I doubt that you can incentivize Omega by cooperating or not.
Also, Bitcoin has an advantage over gold in terms of security. Guarding a lot of gold in a vault is expensive, but keeping a Brainwallet is not.
Which brings up another hilarious Bitcoin Pascal's Mugging scenario: "What is the probability that you die, are cryopreserved, and are resurrected at some point in the future. But this future world is a dystopia, and cryoresurrected people are indentured servants of the company that revived them until they are able to pay back their debt. Since most jobs have been automated it is extremely difficult for you to get the money to ever earn your freedom. However, if you had created a Bitcoin brain wallet, you would be able to access it (because the cryoresurrection process is very good), and you would have something of value with which to pay off your debt and live comfortably in the new world".
Good luck trying to come up with numbers for the probability and value of that scenario. :)
Really?
There is a reason why bank valuts have timed emergency locks.
They'll just extract the brainwallet from your memories using their advanced brain scan technology. Or a rubber hose.
The odds for that scenario are approximately equal to the odds that quantum computers are impossible.
Good answer. :)
Given how often Bitcoins get stolen I don't think the practical security of bitcoin is that high.
A brainwallet has the problem that you risk forgetting it.
Bitcoin security is much cheaper to implement, but the drawback is that it's a lot more susceptible to fraud and large-scale theft. Such thefts have occurred in the last few years.
This assumes the future world still values Bitcoin. I'm reminded of a Twilight Zone episode (The Rip Van Winkle Caper) where a group of thieves steal a large amount of gold, then use a form of suspended animation to sleep for 100 years, intending to wake up in a future where no one remembers their crime and they can live in wealth.