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michael_b comments on 16 types of useful predictions - Less Wrong
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The more time I spend hanging out with rationalists the less comfortable I am making predictions about anything. It's kind of becoming a real problem?
"Do you think you'll be hungry later?" "Maybe"
: /
How are you with decisions? Which after all are the point of all this rationality.
"How about eating here?" "...?"
Sorry to hear that :(
My guess is that a lot of predictions -> you're wrong sometimes -> it feels like you're wrong a lot. Contrasted with not making many predictions -> not being actually wrong as much. If so:
1) Percent incorrect is what matters, not number incorrect. I'm sure you know this, but it could be difficult to get your System 1 to know it.
2) If making a lot of predictions does happen to lead to a high percentage incorrect, that's valuable information to you! It tells you that your models of the world are off and thus provides you with an opportunity to improve!