adamzerner comments on 16 types of useful predictions - Less Wrong

90 Post author: Julia_Galef 10 April 2015 03:31AM

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Comment author: adamzerner 12 April 2015 01:21:10AM 1 point [-]

Sorry to hear that :(

My guess is that a lot of predictions -> you're wrong sometimes -> it feels like you're wrong a lot. Contrasted with not making many predictions -> not being actually wrong as much. If so:

1) Percent incorrect is what matters, not number incorrect. I'm sure you know this, but it could be difficult to get your System 1 to know it.

2) If making a lot of predictions does happen to lead to a high percentage incorrect, that's valuable information to you! It tells you that your models of the world are off and thus provides you with an opportunity to improve!