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DeVliegendeHollander comments on If you could push a button to eliminate one cognitive bias, which would you choose? - Less Wrong
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Comments (39)
Conjunction fallacy, especially the part adding detail makes a scenario more plausible but less probable
The reason is I enjoy screwing with people I love and respect. In this case, sci-fi writers. All your in-depth predictions of how life will be in 300 years are now invalid. Next move?
I think of science fiction as of sampling from futures-space; so it doesn't have to be the most probable scenario, just somewhat plausible.
Some works of sci-fi, especially classic works like Orwell's 1984, aren't even in "futures-space" anymore; those exact scenarios are no longer possible. That doesn't decrease their value at all. Science fiction, to me, is less about sampling from futures-space than about asking "what if?" and then telling a story about it.