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Nanashi comments on A pair of free information security tools I wrote - Less Wrong
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How much money are you willing to bet on that?
If the amount is less than $50,000, I suggest you just offer it all as prize to whoever proves you wrong. The value to your reputation will be more than $5, and due to transaction costs people are unlikely to bet with you directly with less than $5 to gain.
I'd be willing to bet 50% of the market value of a feasible distinguishing-attack against AES. Under the condition that whoever proves me wrong discloses their method to me and only me.
In other words: a shitload. Such an attack would be far more valuable than any sum I'd possibly be able to offer.