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Mac comments on Anti-Pascaline satisficer - Less Wrong
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Comments (7)
I agree that making more paperclips does not reduce ε, but an unsure AI might build more paperclips nonetheless.
If x is the probability that any one paperclip is hallucinated, the AI will never be certain it has created 10 paperclips (or any for that matter) as long as x > 0. But it can increase the probability it has created 10 paperclips by making 3^^^3 of them.
Bug probes may be a more efficient way to increase the probability, but that isn't certain.