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Jiro comments on Open Thread, Apr. 20 - Apr. 26, 2015 - Less Wrong
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That's a forward-looking probability and is certainly not zero.
In the absence of evidence you just fall back on your prior.
Your prior for what?
For the baseline, "underlying" probability of the oracle's request being declined. Roughly speaking, if you have never seen X happen, it does not mean that X will never happen (=has a probability of zero).
This assumes you're a passive observer, by the way -- if you are actively making a decision whether to accept or decline the request you can't apply Bayesian probabilities to your own actions.