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Dentin comments on How to sign up for Alcor cryo - Less Wrong
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Are there any sort of in-depth analysis of the cost/benefit of cryonics? I'm not convinced its the best use of ones money, considering that the money spent could be given to charities to improve the world now, versus the very tiny chance you are preserving your life. The immediate benefit of helping others now seems to considerably outweigh the selfish act of self-preservation, considering that if you can afford cryonics currently, you already have excess money that could be used now for charity.
However, I am relatively new to the topic, so I am certain there are a whole host of issues I am ignorant of and I don't mean to set up a false dichotomy, which is why I ask my original question.
When I ran the numbers, I came up with a change from 50% to 55% on my odds of surviving to the year 2100. It's definitely not much, but I deemed it worthwhile. It's also substantially more than the gain I would get if I were to divert that money towards a charity like the SENS organization, even though donating to SENS would almost certainly be a higher global optimum.
No, I don't have the previous calculations around anymore. I'll probably be redoing them in the next couple of years to make sure it's still worthwhile.
Is that 50-55% estimate conditional on no civilizational collapse or extinction event? Either way, it seems very optimistic. According to current actuarial estimates, a 30 year-old has about a 50% chance of living another 50 years. For life expectancy to dramatically increase, a lot of things have to fall into place over the next half-century. If you think anti-aging tech will be available in 30 years, consider how medicine has advanced in the past 30. Unless there are significant breakthroughs, we're sunk. I'm signed up for cryo and I donate to SENS, but my estimates are much more pessimistic than yours.
I believe I used a fairly small number for civilizational collapse and extinction, on the order of ten to fifteen percent. I just don't find such doomsday scenarios that likely or plausible.
It may be that my background and upbringing have inured me to it - I've seen the end of the world not happen far too many times in my lifetime:
There's probably more if I stop to think about it.
At the moment, I find biotech to be the most likely existential threat, with general civilization collapse and strong AI the next two major candidates.