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AngryParsley comments on How to sign up for Alcor cryo - Less Wrong
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Is that 50-55% estimate conditional on no civilizational collapse or extinction event? Either way, it seems very optimistic. According to current actuarial estimates, a 30 year-old has about a 50% chance of living another 50 years. For life expectancy to dramatically increase, a lot of things have to fall into place over the next half-century. If you think anti-aging tech will be available in 30 years, consider how medicine has advanced in the past 30. Unless there are significant breakthroughs, we're sunk. I'm signed up for cryo and I donate to SENS, but my estimates are much more pessimistic than yours.
I believe I used a fairly small number for civilizational collapse and extinction, on the order of ten to fifteen percent. I just don't find such doomsday scenarios that likely or plausible.
It may be that my background and upbringing have inured me to it - I've seen the end of the world not happen far too many times in my lifetime:
There's probably more if I stop to think about it.
At the moment, I find biotech to be the most likely existential threat, with general civilization collapse and strong AI the next two major candidates.