Mark_Friedenbach comments on How to sign up for Alcor cryo - Less Wrong

32 Post author: oge 26 April 2015 02:51AM

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Comment author: [deleted] 02 May 2015 04:15:41PM *  4 points [-]

As it happens, $1 invested monthly in a conservative portfolio with 6% annualized gains results in just under $1,000 after 30 years. So put aside $80/mo from your monthly budget into an investment account, and use the full balance to pre-pay membership when your term insurance is up.

Comment author: Lumifer 02 May 2015 04:23:15PM -1 points [-]

a conservative portfolio with 6% annualized gains

Ain't no such thing at the moment.

Not to mention that you should distinguish gains in nominal terms and gains in real terms.

Comment author: [deleted] 02 May 2015 05:01:36PM *  3 points [-]

Over a 30 year period? Low-risk 6% annualized is trivial to setup. Adding inflation means you have to target 8% growth, which is also perfectly achievable -- it's the gold standard for a moderate risk stock/bonds split over that sort of time horizon. But if you want to keep that more conservative, low risk profile then you only need to contribute $145/mo instead of $100/mo to achieve $100k, adjusted after 30 years of 4% real gains.

Comment author: Lumifer 02 May 2015 10:34:31PM -1 points [-]

Low-risk 6% annualized is trivial to setup.

Would you care to demonstrate?

Comment author: [deleted] 02 May 2015 11:40:27PM 2 points [-]

S&P 500 does better than that. So take a mix of a low-cost market index fund and a broad spectrum bond fund, to your desired risk ratio.

Comment author: Lumifer 03 May 2015 02:17:57AM -1 points [-]

No, it used to do better than that. Do you offer guarantees for the future (note that, for example, bonds will NOT be able to repeat the performance of the last 10-15 years)? There is also considerable volatility -- presumably you would like some assurance that when you'll need the money S&P isn't going to be in one of its troughs? And, as most everyone, you forgot about taxes.

Comment author: [deleted] 03 May 2015 05:23:23AM *  1 point [-]

It is possible we are on the verge of a Great Depression like event. But possible does not imply probable.

Regarding taxes, you simply buy a term insurance lasting until you are at least 59 1/2, and use a retirement account to save for your future cryogenic preservation on a tax-free basis (and I mean truly tax-free -- you save on a tax-deferred basis, and then when you are proclaimed legally dead the transfer to Alcor is made from your estate without taxes so long as your net worth is less than $5m).

But feel free to invest in a universal life policy instead, as most Alcor members do. It's basically the same thing under the hood, just with a bunch of middlemen taking cuts along the way. Of course the financial collapse that is so drastic that a broad index fund would perform less than 6% annualized is likely to wipe out your life insurance company too. But maybe you'll feel better thinking that you have that risk covered.

Comment author: Lumifer 03 May 2015 06:38:24AM 0 points [-]

It is possible we are on the verge of a Great Depression like event

That too, though I mostly meant the slowdown in economic growth.

and then when you are proclaimed legally dead the transfer to Alcor is made from your estate

A couple of problems here. First, you are obligated to start withdrawing money from your retirement account at certain age. Second, is Alcor happy to start the cryo without waiting for probate to settle?

the financial collapse that is so drastic that a broad index fund would perform less than 6% annualized is likely to wipe out your life insurance company too

No need for collapse. Take a look at e.g. Japan. All its life insurance companies are intact, but the stock market... did not perform well during the past 30 years.