VoiceOfRa comments on Why capitalism? - Less Wrong

6 Post author: Algon 03 May 2015 06:16PM

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Comment author: Vaniver 03 May 2015 07:20:26PM *  8 points [-]

I used to view capitalism as an inherent part of the society we currently live in, with no real economic competition.

I think it's best to approach this by asking what capitalism is. I see it as a distributed computing resource allocation system.

That is:

  1. Decision-making is decentralized. Each agent has private information and communicates with the market through 'prices.'

  2. Actual decision-making / computing is going on; agents are choosing between alternatives, constructing portfolios, gathering information, and so on.

  3. There are some scarce resources that could be used to satisfy multiple different desires, but there's not enough to satisfy all desires.

You can construct an alternative by flipping those descriptions. For example, rather than a decentralized system, you could have a centralized system. This is empirically worse off, because we don't have easily scalable centralized computing, and information transfer is hard. (If you've already got billions of biological computers running around, why not make use of them?)

A zero marginal cost society is one in which we can satisfy all desires, without ever having to face tradeoffs between those desires. While this could eventually be possible, it seems unlikely, and is more likely to be accomplished through editing our desires than editing our environment. What's more likely is that the sort of things that we consider costly will change.

For example, consider a moon colony where air has to be filtered, to process CO2 back into breathable O2. You either have a bottle exchange, pipe connection to a filtration facility, or pay for the cubic and wattage to have plants that do your filtration for you, but 'breathable air' is a thing you budget for and part of your utility costs. On Earth, breathable O2 is zero marginal cost, because there's so much of it lying around.

Water is only slightly more expensive--yes, bottled water isn't cheap, but tap water is two and a half gallons for a cent. (People in the US use about 80 gallons of water a day, or about 32 cents a day, but rare is the person who drinks over a gallon a day.) So water is 'minimal marginal cost'--people will typically turn a tap on without a second thought if they want some water, but people also only consume ~4 times their volume in water a day, rather than hundreds or millions of time their volume.

Food is again more expensive, but still cheap enough that it is rare (in the developed world) to not have enough to eat, and cheap enough for government programs to fund distribution programs with only mild taxation. Most don't think of food as being zero marginal cost; it's typically expensive enough to get mindshare along with the rest of the budget.

But suppose that everything physical becomes as cheap as water. You decide you want a cup of Earl Grey tea, hot, and so you 'turn on the tap' and there it is. You decide you want a motorcycle, and so you 'turn on the tap', and there it is. At that point, what is the scarce commodity that is wanted more than had?

Some obvious things come to mind: status, attention, time, and so on. Bits of information are already cheap enough to transfer that many websites generate elaborate content to attract eyeballs, because sometimes those eyeballs click on ads or buy t-shirts or donate money. We already live in a world where people make professional salaries by designing clothing for electronic avatars. Even in the world where everything physical is free, it seems that there will be things for 'capitalism' to operate on. (You can imagine the differences between a capitalist attention economy and a communist attention economy, for example.)

It seems unlikely to me that we will reach a point where the physical world is as cheap as water in the next several decades--I think that 3D printing will be roughly competitive with current manufacturing (factories can make a lot of things very cheaply, and precision 3D printing may be finicky enough to require factory-like conditions), and we already know that renewables aren't as cheap as non-renewable energy (that's why we're going to all the trouble of drilling that oil). If energy isn't zero marginal cost today, more of it coming from solar isn't going to make the costs any lower!

Comment author: Algon 03 May 2015 07:28:45PM *  0 points [-]

Would you be okay with waiting a while before I reply? I need to check a few things here and there.

Edit 1: Renewable energies have lower subsidies globally than fossil fuels. In Germany, a quarter of energy comes from renewables. In fact, only 7% of the renewable sector in Germany was owned by the big traditional power and utility companies. The rest is owned by individuals (40%), energy niche players (14%), farmers (11%), various energy intensive industrial companies (9%), financial companies (11%) and small regional and international utilities owned another 7%. Gerard Mestrallet, CEO of GDF suez (a French utility company) called it a 'real revolution'

There are communities around the world where, after everyone switching to renewable energy sources, they no longer paid energy bills. That is, their energy was free. Part of the reason why we energy is not at zero marginal costs right now is because the current facilities, which are based on technologies from the second industrial revolution, are too inefficient. The building of an energy internet in the US will likely cost about $1.2 trillion, with a return of about $2 Trillion. This doesn't even begin to take into account how much more efficient such a system would be than the current one. The savings would be massive.

It requires massive corporations to take advantage of economies of scale in order to get a profit from fossil fuels. The new 'energy internet' is far more efficient. In fact, if it is properly installed, it represents a future where energies will be zero marginal cost.

temporary edit: that's it for today. I need to switch off the computer now.

Comment author: VoiceOfRa 04 May 2015 12:19:34AM 4 points [-]

Renewable energies have lower subsidies globally than fossil fuels.

Citation please.

In Germany, a quarter of energy comes from renewables.

Only, because of German subsidies for renewables.

Comment author: D_Alex 04 May 2015 06:50:40AM 0 points [-]

Citation please.

"Fossil fuel subsidies reached $90 billion in the OECD and over $500 billion globally in 2011.[1] Renewable energy subsidies reached $88 billion in 2011.[2] "

from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_subsidies

(This is without even considering that fossil fuel usage imposes external costs such as pollution, that the fossil fuel user does not pay. Some have argued that this amounts to an effective subsidy of the order of a trillion dollars per year).

Comment author: Alsadius 04 May 2015 11:56:06AM 3 points [-]

But renewables are vastly smaller than fossil fuels, and the relevant number is subsidy per unit energy.

Comment author: D_Alex 05 May 2015 02:26:57AM *  -1 points [-]

But renewables are vastly smaller than fossil fuels

Not really. From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy :

"Based on REN21's 2014 report, renewables contributed 19 percent to our energy consumption and 22 percent to our electricity generation in 2012 and 2013, respectively"

So if you believe Wikipedia (and is there a better general source?), fossil fuels attract more subsidies per unit energy as well as in total.

Comment author: Alsadius 05 May 2015 03:05:19PM *  0 points [-]

Remember, a lot of renewables get thrown in together without being the same. The renewables that get subsidies are mostly the flashy new ones, like wind, solar, and ethanol. Those are only a few percent of world consumption. Virtually all renewable energy production is either hydroelectric(which is quite profitable, and attracts basically no subsidies) or burning of wood and dung(which almost entirely happens in poor countries that can't afford to subsidize much of anything). Slightly dated graph, but one that gives a good sense of how things break down: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy#/media/File:Total_World_Energy_Consumption_by_Source_2010.png

Also, over 80% of fossil fuel subsidies are outside the OECD? Seriously? 80% of the money spent on anything being non-OECD is hard to fathom, because the OECD has somewhere around 80% of the world's money, and a lot more disposable income to blow on subsidizing things.

Comment author: D_Alex 06 May 2015 03:22:45AM 0 points [-]

Remember, a lot of renewables get thrown in together without being the same. The renewables that get subsidies are mostly the flashy new ones...

I have provided a few facts... you are trying to put a certain interpretation on them. To what end? What is it exactly that you are trying to argue?

Seriously? 80% of the money spent on anything being non-OECD is hard to fathom...

And now you are denying the data.

What is subsidised and where, is decided by factors that are not necessarily obvious or "sensible", and there is a huge element of political electability. In OECD, fuels are a source of taxation revenue, whereas farmers, for example, benefit from subsidies. In the middle east and South-East Asia, fossil fuel is heavily subsidised, eg. in Indonesia gasoline sold for about 90% of crude oil price while I was there (and Indonesia imports their crude). I read that fully half of government revenue was at one point used to pay for the fuel subsidies. Why? Well, as soon as there is a discussion of reducing the subsidies, protests break out, and the politicians supporting the reductions do not get re-elected....

Comment author: Alsadius 08 May 2015 04:00:09PM 1 point [-]

If that non-OECD number is to be believed, 2% of non-OECD GDP goes to fuel subsidies. Or, if you prefer to think of it this way, it's close to 1/3 of the total world oil market to fossil fuel subsidies. And this number comes from a think-tank that's obviously out to make an anti-subsidy point, with no detail as to where it came from or why we should believe it. Think tanks aren't to be immediately dismissed, but they frequently exaggerate badly.

And the discussion is about why renewables get used. German use of renewables is very different than Canadian or Congolese, and aggregating them leads to muddy thinking and useless stats. Germans use modern renewables because the government is dumping a bloody lot of money into the industry. Canadians use renewables because we have massive amounts of easily-tapped hydroelectric potential, and hydro dams are the cheapest source of power known. Congolese use renewables because they have no better options than burning wood.

I'll agree with you that some poor countries spend a lot on subsidizing gasoline, but it's only a lot by poor-country standards, and it's hardly all of them. I want a better source than naked statement of a number from a biased group before I'll believe it adds up to that staggering a sum. And even if it does, that has no impact on the US, where fossil fuel is nearly unsubsidized - if you want me to think that renewables and an "energy internet" are a good choice for the US, then you need to explain how switching from a cheaper source to one that's more expensive even with bigger subsidies is a net cost savings.

Comment author: D_Alex 10 May 2015 06:00:38AM *  -1 points [-]

I still do not understand your objective in this discussion. It seems that you are implicitly against subsidising renewable energy. Is this correct?

(I work in the oil and gas industry, by the way, so fossil fuel subsidies sort of help me out...).

For that matter, I do not understand the upvotes in this thread. A citation was asked for - then it was provided - and then there are several posts attempting to invalidate the citation, attracting upvotes. Strange.

I want a better source than naked statement of a number from a biased group

We all do... could you please provide one?

if you want me to think that renewables ... are a good choice for the US...

I don't know when this discussion started to be about the US, and I don't know if I really care enough about what you think to put in more effort... are you in a position to influence what the US chooses? If yes, then I will explain why this statement:

how switching from a cheaper source [presumably fossil fuels] to one that's more expensive [presumably renewable energy]

is wrong.