eli_sennesh comments on Debunking Fallacies in the Theory of AI Motivation - Less Wrong
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Yes, there is an asymptotic limit where eventually you just approach the analytic estimator, and need more empirical/sensory data. There are almost always asymptotic limits, usually the "platonic" or "true" full-information probability.
But as I said, it was an analogy for beginners, not a complete description of how I expect a real AI system to work.