Gunnar_Zarncke comments on Thoughts on minimizing designer baby drama - Less Wrong

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Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 12 May 2015 08:37:33PM 1 point [-]

Poll? (set 2015, 9999 if you just want to see results; 9999 also stands for "never").

Year I expect this technology earliest

Year I expect this technology latest

Submitting...

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 12 May 2015 10:11:41PM *  2 points [-]

Thanks for including a "just want to see the results" option, though a question for that might have been better. I assume the 9999's are screwing up the means.

Would anyone who thought the tech would be available in the fairly near future be willing to explain their line of thought?

Comment author: passive_fist 14 May 2015 05:18:21AM 0 points [-]

Would anyone who thought the tech would be available in the fairly near future be willing to explain their line of thought?

http://lesswrong.com/lw/m6b/thoughts_on_minimizing_designer_baby_drama/cd1x

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 13 May 2015 06:37:26AM 0 points [-]

Thanks for including a "just want to see the results" option, though a question for that might have been better

I thought about that - but then some value still would be needed for the numeric result.

I assume the 9999's are screwing up the medians.

The mean you mean I guess.

I recommend looking at the raw numbers - it is easy.

Comment author: NancyLebovitz 13 May 2015 11:00:04AM 0 points [-]

You're right. I meant the mean-- I've corrected it.

Comment author: Gunnar_Zarncke 16 May 2015 11:16:39AM *  0 points [-]

Some results after looking at the data (29 votes):

  • Two people (7%) apparently believe that the technology is possibly already there (by giving least values <2015).
  • Two people (7%) believe that this technology will even under the best circumstance (least estimate) be possible.
  • About 30% (10/29) believe that this technology might never arrive (by giving an upper bound of 9999).
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