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Jayson_Virissimo comments on Thoughts on minimizing designer baby drama - Less Wrong
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Better than what probability of civil war?
Civil wars have been fought over class before, and I think different classes diverging into different species would massively raise the probability of this. I'm really not sure how to put a number to this, but I'd guess somewhere around 10% for the US, and around 90% for terrorism, but not tanks on the street.
The probability would be higher for less stable countries.