shminux comments on Visions and Mirages: The Sunk Cost Dilemma - Less Wrong

-8 Post author: OrphanWilde 20 May 2015 08:56PM

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Comment author: shminux 20 May 2015 11:35:56PM *  2 points [-]

But at each step, you discover another step you didn't originally anticipate, and had no priors for anticipating.

if this is the case, your issue is unrelated to sunk cost, it is the Planning Fallacy. You've failed to perform the proper risk analysis and mitigation. The excuse "had no priors for anticipating" is only valid for black swan events, but not for your run-of-the-mill problems every project has.

So, when faced with the situation you describe, one should stop barking up the wrong tree and and do a pre-mortem.