RichardKennaway comments on Visions and Mirages: The Sunk Cost Dilemma - Less Wrong

-8 Post author: OrphanWilde 20 May 2015 08:56PM

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Comment author: RichardKennaway 21 May 2015 07:09:05AM 2 points [-]

This is the Planning Fallacy, for which the remedy is the Outside View: ask how similar projects have turned out in the past. That will likely be more accurate than imagining how this particular project will go.

I have heard (but do not have personal experience) of a rule of thumb for software developers when quoting a number of days work for a project. Imagine the longest it could possibly take, then multiply by three.

But perhaps you have not taken an outside view at the start, and got into a project that is multiplying like a hydra? Then take the outside view now, avoid the Sunk Cost fallacy, and ask, is the difference in payoff from completing vs. abandoning the project worth the difference in costs, now realistically estimated, that will be incurred from here on?