Jiro comments on Visions and Mirages: The Sunk Cost Dilemma - Less Wrong

-8 Post author: OrphanWilde 20 May 2015 08:56PM

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Comment author: Jiro 21 May 2015 04:01:01PM 1 point [-]

I'm not reversing the math. They increase the workload by 1/3 of your prediction, so you give them a prediction which is sized such that, after adding the current workload to the increase based on your prediction, you get the prediction.

And you don't need to predict the next round of mugging because the idea is to give a prediction which takes into account all successive rounds of mugging. If the sum of all these rounds is greater than 100%, the problem can never end at all. If it's less, you can do what I said.