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Jiro comments on Visions and Mirages: The Sunk Cost Dilemma - Less Wrong
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Comments (68)
Your calculation is worthless because it fails to consider the probability that you're incorrectly updating. The solution is to consider the probability that you're incorrectly updating.
If you are required to assume that you're correctly updating, but it's a real life situation where you aren't, then there is no solution because you have assumed something false.