Jiro comments on Visions and Mirages: The Sunk Cost Dilemma - Less Wrong

-8 Post author: OrphanWilde 20 May 2015 08:56PM

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Comment author: Jiro 21 May 2015 06:23:32PM *  1 point [-]

It'd be 1/2 your prediction, if you're giving them 10 days and want to arrive at 15 after they add their increase.

It's 1/2 of your non-mugging prediction, but it's 1/3 of your stated (with-mugging) prediction. You're trying to arrange it so that non-mugging prediction + mugging based on with-mugging prediction = with-mugging prediction.