It feels like there was no explicit rule not to ask questions. It's interesting what percentage of subjects actually questioned the process.

If people are conforming rationally, then the opinion of 15 other subjects should be substantially stronger evidence than the opinion of 3 other subjects.

I don't see how moderate number of other wrong-answering subjects should influence decision of rational subject, even if it's strictly speaking stronger evidence, as uncertainty in your own sanity should be much lower than probability of alternative explanations for wrong answers of other subjects.

The video notes that when the subject is instructed to write their answers, conformity drops enormously. That suggests we can set aside the hypothesis that they conform for the rational reason you set out.

At an applied level, this reminds me of Dr. Jerry B. Harvey’s discussion of the "Abilene Paradox" in management, where groupthink can take over and move an organization in a direction that no-one really wants to go. All it takes is one dissenter to break the spell.

Surely there's more than social conformity/conflict aversion at work here? In the experiment in the video, an expectation of pattern continuation is set up. For most questions, the 4 spoken words the subject hears before responding do correspond to the apparently correct spoken word response. I'd expect subconcious processes to start interpreting this as an indicator of the correct answer regardless of social effects and be influenced accordingly, at least enough to cause confusion which would then increase susceptibility to the social effects.

I'd expect this effect to also be reduced where the subject is writing down his answers, as that takes out of the equation the close connection between hearing spoken numbers and speaking spoken numbers.

FYI, if you look at Asch's 1955 Scientific American article, the lines on the cards were a little closer in length than in the example shown above.

my vision is so bad that i answered 'none of the above'. i had to decide to measure the lines. that meant i first had to get to where i did not think the trick was the question. that took a cup of tea. 'trust the ruler, not the vision' has been added to my list of -ings.

"Belief is not suitable as any kind of evidence when more-direct evidence is available, yet people tend to reject direct evidence in order to conform with the beliefs of others."

Caledonian, this is just wrong. Our ability to interpret evidence is not infallible, and is often fallible in ways that are not perfectly correlated across individuals. So even if we share the same 'direct evidence' as other observers of equaly ability their beliefs are still relevant.

Except we'd have to take into account the idea that the others who's beliefs we are using as evidence may themselves have been using the same idea... That results weighting of the beleifs of an initial group being greatly amplified above and beyond what it should be, no?

Robert Aumann's Agreement Theorem shows that honest Bayesians cannot agree to disagree - if they have common knowledge of their probability estimates, they have the same probability estimate.

In addition to what James Annan said, they also both have to know (with very high confidence) that they are in fact honest bayesians. Both sides being honest isn't enough if either suspects the other of lying.

In terms of individual rationality, I hope I would notice my own severe confusion and then assign >50% probability to the majority vote.

Noticing your own severe confusion should lead to investigating the reasons for the disagreement, not to immediately going along with the majority. Honest Bayesians cannot agree to agree either. They must go through the process of sharing their information, not just their conclusions.

Check out this paper:

Gregory S. Berns, Jonathan Chappelow, Caroline F. Zink, Giuseppe Pagnoni, Megan E. Martin-Skurski, and Jim Richards, “Neurobiological Correlates of Social Conformity and Independence During Mental Rotation,” Biological Psychiatry 58 (2005), pp. 245-253.

It claims that the conformists can, under some conditions, actually come to see the world differently.

In the above calculation I forgot to mention that for simplicity I assumed that the experiment is such that one would normally have a 50% chance of survival. If this value is different, the values above would be different, but the fact of agreement would be the same (although there would also be the difficulty that a chance other than 50% is not easy to reconcile with a many-worlds theory anyway.)

Quantum suicide vs. Aumann has been discussed a couple times before, and yes, it's very confusing.

Intuitive support for this is the fact that if a QI experiment were actually performed, and we consider the viewpoint of the one surviving 300 successive trials, he would certainly conclude that QI was true, and our intuitions say that the outside observers should admit that he's right.

My intuitions say outside observers should not update their estimates one bit, and I'm pretty sure this is correct, unless they should also increase their probability of MWI on making the equivalent observation of a coin coming up heads 300 times in a row.

(although there would also be the difficulty that a chance other than 50% is not easy to reconcile with a many-worlds theory anyway.) http://www.hedweb.com/everett/everett.htm#probabilities http://hanson.gmu.edu/mangledworlds.html

IMHO quantum immortality and quantum suicide (unlike MWI) are nonsense, but I'm still trying to figure out a way to say this that convinces other people.

For probabilities in MWI I recommend the work of David Wallace.

Nick, my argument didn't depend on intuition except for support; so it doesn't bother me if your intuition differs. What was your opinion of the argument (or did I simply omit too many of the details to judge)?

Actually, if considering the SSSA instead of just the SSA, one has to take into account all the observer-moments, past and future, right? So there well be, in addition to the specific observer moments of "immediately post experiment test subject (or not), experimenter, everyone else...", there'll be past and future versions theirof, and of other entities, so you'll have K1 total "others" (other observer-moments, that is) in a MW universe, and K2 << K1 "others" in a single world universe.

This'll make the calculation a bit more confusing.

"... then what are the odds that only you are the one who's right?"

If this is the reasoning for people choosing the same answer then surely it becomes a question of confidence rather than conformity?

Choosing the same answer as the group in your argument is because you aren't confident in your answer and are willing to defer to the majority answer. Not necessarily the same as conformity. By your own rationing you are going with the group because you think their answer is "better" not because you want to be part of the group. I know you can argue that that is just your rationale for conformity, but I feel that conformity is more about doubting something you are sure you know, to side with a group, rather than doubting something you think you might know.

I feel possibly a more accurate test (using this reasoning for conformity) would be to take a group and tell all the members individually that only they will know the right answer. Then give all bar one the same answer and one a different answer and see if they will conform with the group.

"I believe that the subjects were of those of a non-matured state..."

I guess that's the difference between being biased or not. I think your understanding of a "mature mind" equals an "unbiased mind" which is not present in all the adults. And of course the result of this experiment would have been different if it were conducted on the readers of this website.

I don't see why you think that 3 extra people, no matter if they're honest or not, amount to any significant amount of evidence when you can see the diagram yourself.

Sure, maybe they're good enough if you can't see the diagram; 3 people thinking the same thing doesn't often happen when they're wrong. But when they are wrong, when you can see that they are wrong, then it doesn't matter how many of them there are.

Also: certainly the odds aren't high that you're right if we're talking totally random odds about a proposition where the evidence is totally ambiguous. But since there is a diagram, the odds then shift to either the very low probability "My eyesight has suddenly become horrible in this one instance and no others" combined with the high probability "3/4 people are right about a seemingly easy problem", versus the low probability "3/4 people are wrong about a seemingly easy problem", versus the high probability "My eyesight is working fine".

I don't know the actual numbers for this, but it seems likely the the probability of your eyesight suddenly malfunctioning in strange and specific ways is worse then the probability of 3 other people getting an easy problem wrong. Remember, they can have whatever long-standing problems with their eyesight or perception or whatever anyone cares to make up. Or you could just take the results of Asch's experiment as a prior and say that they're not that much more impressive than 1 person going first.

(All this of course changes if they can explain why C is a better answer; if they have a good logical reason for it despite how odd it seems, it's probably true. But until then, you have to rely on your own good logical reason for B being a better answer.)

This gives us a very good reason to publicize dissenting opinions about just about anything---even perhaps when we think those dissents are wrong. Apparently the mere presence of a dissenter damages groupthink and allows true answers a much better chance to emerge.

I can't imagine myself ever conforming until it was less than 1/8 as blatant as the example image.  Assigning a >50% probability to the majority being correct seems way too generous, because I have no strong evidence that they're not lying, and a high prior on my ability to see linear distances on a 2D page.

Did the 100+ replications collect any data on what sort of people are more conformist than others, besides the gender gap?

On the topic of "why would conformity not grow with 15 people going before you instead of 3", one answer is obvious. The subject realises that the other people are not independently wrong, but that their is a trick. A Baysian can reason that other people might not be independent data points.

In my school I volunteered with the psychology class to help with an experiment. The first person said line C was the matching one, I practically flinched, and gave them an involuntary "what is wrong with you?" look. The second agreed it was line C. I thought "what the hell?!!" and looked at their sheet, then back and my sheet and confirmed they were the same. On person 3 I realised I could fold my sheet over and hold it to the light to check they lined up. If I had been the 4th in the line I would have been really confused. But I was something like 12th. By person 7 I was almost 100% sure the play was "Oh, they must all be in on it somehow. They want to see if peer pressure will turn me into an idiot."

So an unavoidable issue with the experiment is that more people conforming gives the subject more time to theorise about why a large cohort of people would all be making such an obvious mistake in a correlated way. And this theorising will not take long to start focussing on the fact that you know its an experiment, and you start wondering what they could be testing.

I was about to add on that no-one would ever conform if they had even the slightest real reward for pointing out the obvious (eg. some $ for a right answer), but a quick google suggests that my intuitions on that might be really out.

If people are conforming rationally, then the opinion of 15 other subjects should be substantially stronger evidence than the opinion of 3 other subjects.

This doesn't seem true; the data correlate pretty strongly, so more wouldn't provide much evidence.

Adding a single dissenter—just one other person who gives the correct answer, or even an incorrect answer that’s different from the group’s incorrect answer—reduces conformity very sharply, down to 5–10% of subjects.

This is irrational, though.