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Dr_Manhattan comments on Rationality is about pattern recognition, not reasoning - Less Wrong
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Musk is very interesting in his regard. He didn't start SpaceX and Tesla because he reasoned himself into those projects having a high chance of commercial success.
He choose them because he believed in those goals. He's driven by passion towards those goals.
Even if I agree with you on the goals (I can claim he used meta-rationality here, in the sense that someone should try to make humans interplanetary species, even if he thought his chance of success was less than 50%) a lot the thinking that made him arrive at SpaceX seemed to be "one can actually do this way cheaper than the currently accepted standards, based on cost of materials etc"
I don't think Jonah or I argues that you should never make calculations. Musks did make many decisions on that path and from the outside it's hard to get an overview of what drives which decision.