JonahSinick comments on Rationality is about pattern recognition, not reasoning - Less Wrong

25 Post author: JonahSinick 26 May 2015 07:23PM

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Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 07 June 2015 07:16:03AM 3 points [-]

You have not understood correctly regarding Carl. He claimed, in hindsight, that Zuckerberg's potential could've been distinguished in foresight, but he did not do so.

Comment author: JonahSinick 07 June 2015 08:00:45AM *  2 points [-]

I'm puzzled, is there a way to read his comment

People described him to me as resembling a young Bill Gates. His estimated expected future wealth based on that data if pursuing entrepreneurship, and informed by the data about the relationship of all of the characteristics I could track with it, was in the 9-figure range. Then add in that facebook was a very promising startup (I did some market sizing estimates for it, and people who looked at it and its early results were reliably impressed).

other than as him doing it at the time?

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 07 June 2015 07:50:33PM 1 point [-]

Yes, as his post facto argument.

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