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DeVliegendeHollander comments on Rationality Quotes Thread June 2015 - Less Wrong
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If it took you an hour to come up with the truth that's likely. If you however needed thousands of hours of thinking to discover it, the case for you knowing something that other people don't know is much better.
Especially if you read various experts that connect to the topic and understand the state of the field, you can make a reasonable argument that you have something that qualifies.
Peter Thiel talks about this being a foundation for successful startups. When Mark Zuckerberg being social network he had the insight to the truth that "real identify is really important for a social network" that few other people believed.
Thousands of hours of thinking and no experiment sounds dangerously close to philosophy :)
I said nothing about the absence of experiment.
Ideally you want a mix of careful reflection, scholarship, discussing it with others and empirical investigation.