Sorry, this was an useless post so now it's gone
I think that this blog often falls into the trap of too much jargon without enough context, because it uses large chunks of direct quotes.
I don't think that it over reached with reference class forecasting - it seemed to me to do a good job of summarazing. Which step do you feel overreached?
Great article that systemetizes the process of taking the outside view into 4 steps. Thought LWers might get a kick out of it.
http://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2015/05/inside-view-michael-mauboussin/