Let’s do an experiment in "reverse crowdfunding”. I will pay 50 USD to anyone who can suggest a new way of X-risk prevention that is not already mentioned in this roadmap. Post your ideas as a comment to this post.
Should more than one person have the same idea, the award will be made to the person who posted it first.
The idea must be endorsed by me and included in the roadmap in order to qualify, and it must be new, rational and consistent with modern scientific data.
I may include you as a co-author in the roadmap (if you agree).
The roadmap is distributed under an open license GNU.
Payment will be made by PayPal. The total amount of the prize fund is 500 USD (total 10 prizes).
The competition is open until the end of 2015.
The roadmap can be downloaded as a pdf from:
UPDATE: I uploaded new version of the map with changes marked in blue.
http://immortality-roadmap.com/globriskeng.pdf
Email: alexei.turchin@gmail.com
You can treat insurance and reinsurance markets as prediction markets for severe events (earthquakes, hurricanes, etc.). I don't think they (or your proposed prediction markets) would be helpful in estimating the probabilities of extinction events.
Seems like the definition of "severe" is an issue here. Maybe I should have used "incredibly severe"?
Yes, reinsurance markets deal in large insured risks, but they do not target the incredibly large humanitarian risks that are more informative to us. See reinsurance deals here for reference: http://www.artemis.bm/deal_directory/
Care to explain your reasoning? For example, if the market indicated that the ... (read more)