Let’s do an experiment in "reverse crowdfunding”. I will pay 50 USD to anyone who can suggest a new way of X-risk prevention that is not already mentioned in this roadmap. Post your ideas as a comment to this post.
Should more than one person have the same idea, the award will be made to the person who posted it first.
The idea must be endorsed by me and included in the roadmap in order to qualify, and it must be new, rational and consistent with modern scientific data.
I may include you as a co-author in the roadmap (if you agree).
The roadmap is distributed under an open license GNU.
Payment will be made by PayPal. The total amount of the prize fund is 500 USD (total 10 prizes).
The competition is open until the end of 2015.
The roadmap can be downloaded as a pdf from:
UPDATE: I uploaded new version of the map with changes marked in blue.
http://immortality-roadmap.com/globriskeng.pdf
Email: alexei.turchin@gmail.com
You're right, I got confused with the noise floor in polls.
However my concern with counterparties didn't disappear. People need incentives to participate in markets. Those who bet that there won't be a nuclear war next year will expect to win some money and if that money is half of a basis point they are not going to bother. Who will be the source of money that pays the winners?
At which probability you're going to take the side "yes, there will be a nuclear war in 2016"?
And if this particular market will be subsidized, well, then it becomes free money and your prediction ability goes out of the window.
I suspect prediction markets won't work well with very-low-probability bets. Especially bets with moral overtones ("You bet on a global pandemic happening? What are you, a monster??")
Half a basis point is half a basis point. Bond traders would prostitute their grandmothers for a regular half a basis point boost to their returns.
The source is everyone who takes the other side of the contract? PMs are two-sided.
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