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Nanashi comments on Salary charts & Projection tool - Less Wrong
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In my experience, at the under-grad level, the college you go to doesn't really matter (and especially your grades). I know that when I am hiring, I personally spend exactly 2 seconds looking at what school someone went to (and exactly 0 seconds looking at their grades).
It may be different at the post-graduate level though.
I think the undergrad college matters, but on a three-bucket basis :-) The buckets are (1) the top tier; (2) the very large middle; (3) the bottom of the barrel.
Yes, I suspect the elite-college job premium comes less from that mechanism and more from (1) more-skilled students applying to higher-ranked colleges, (2) unofficial/semi-official cumulative advantage processes whereby current students at elite colleges benefit from past elite-college graduates becoming elites in external social networks, and (3) elite colleges having better official career services like interview practice sessions, job databases, and careers fairs.