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Well, yes, that's true. So what's the net result? Maximum entropy? Everyone ends up evenly spread out across value-space? If that's the case, then what basis do we have for a sense of morality in the first place? Or does the force of Affective Death Spirals cause valuepoints to gravitate toward each other, forming factionalization? That's difficult to imagine, though, because someone can belong to two different, even generically (though not in fact) opposing, factions: Gay and Republican, Mormon and Rationalist.
Predict the future. Go. :P
EDIT: How do you feel about the hypothesis that the distance between a valuepoint and the "mainstream" valuepoint correlates positively with the susceptibility of that valuepoint to an Affective Death Spiral? I.e., people are more adamant about holding beliefs that are more "weird".
I'd keep morality out of this discussion entirely, to be honest. It tends to obscure more than it illuminates when talking about cultural dynamics.
Okay, so forget morality. What does the shape of valuespace end up looking like? Maximum entropy? Factionalization? Or one new cultural mainstream, in a different place in valuespace than the previous one?
I think we can safely rule out a single cultural mainstream -- our cultural architecture post-Internet would make one unstable, since it makes any opposition visible and self-reinforcing. About the only way for one to exist would be if human preference space turns out to be narrow enough to accommodate only one when sufficiently analyzed, which given what we know about minds I very much doubt is the case. Maximum entropy doesn't seem much more likely, since it also seems unstable in view of human alliance-seeking behavior.
That leaves factionalism -- but that's a pretty broad spectrum, and there are too many unknowns for me to make solid predictions about where points in value-space will end up clustering, if they ever stabilize at all. I don't think the conflicting value systems you describe are much of a barrier, though; people might have an impressive capacity for cognitive dissonance, but they don't have an infinite one.
Oh yes, well, I wouldn't expect any actual predictions at this point. :3 That would be rather difficult. But I agree that factionalism is the Most Likely Scenario; vocal dissent will work against minimum entropy, and alliance-seeking will work against maximum entropy.
The analogy of the formation of stars and planets keeps coming to mind, but I think that might be just noise.
The problem with factionalism is that group psychology tends to lead to inter-faction wars... do you think this is likely to be a legitimate, real-world problem in the future?
We can definitely expect to see conflict -- we see it already at a small scale. I'm not really comfortable wearing the futurist hat when it comes to predicting what future factional conflicts will look like, though.
I'm sorry; I did not mean to interrogate you. I meant my questions as a hypothetical conversation-starter; I may have been too aggressive.
If your interested in fiction about possible futures, i advise you look at some of the below universes :) <---- EDIT for clarification.
Shadowrun seems like one possibility that would be cool but not very realistic in the future, that's one of the only fictional universes i would assume has any substantial probability given the predicate that magic returns to the world.
Another one would be the Ardneh sequence by Fred Saberhagen which requires no such prior just a lot of awesome AI development that doesn't end in a completely positive singularity.
I dont refer to them for actual predictions xD i just thought if you were interested in possible futures consistent with evidence then you should read those series. I'm quite aware of that fallacy, but I'm sorry if i was unclear.
Well, then. :3 I'd be happy to take a look! Thank you for your entirely non-fallacious contribution.
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