Carl_Shulman comments on My Strange Beliefs - Less Wrong

17 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 30 December 2007 12:15PM

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Comment author: Carl_Shulman 30 December 2007 05:55:32PM 0 points [-]

Unknown,

There's an 'evaporative cooling' effect for weakly held beliefs among people who frequently encounter opposing views, where beliefs that one can be easily argued out of tend to be eliminated over time as one falls into stronger attractors. If someone has read most of the major literature on view X, talked to experts on the field, observed polling or survey information on its prevalence, and sought out critiques from expert disinterested parties, it's unlikely that hearing that any particular nonexpert disagrees should shift her views very much. She already expects a certain proportion of such disagreement in the population and has accounted for it in her estimates.