Nathan_Myers comments on My Strange Beliefs - Less Wrong

17 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 30 December 2007 12:15PM

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Comment author: Nathan_Myers 02 January 2008 06:53:47AM 0 points [-]

For an unbiased, science-based model of the Singularity, there is no better source than Jared Diamond, "Collapse" and "The Third Chimpanzee". The Americas and many Pacific islands have faced mini-singularies in the recent past. Among the more poignant is Easter Island, where every last tree was cut down.

Diamond identifies a round dozen worldwide crises, any one of which may cause a corresponding worldwide collapse in the next century. Among them are nuclear-weapon proliferation, water shortages, devastation of fisheries, global warming, elimination of tropical forests, and peak oil. He addresses the prospects of "technically innovating" our way out of all twelve, and the outlook is bleak.

Could a fancy AI help? Only if we followed its advice. We are already getting much better advice than we seem able to follow.