I am currently learning about the basics of decision theory, most of which is common knowledge on LW. I have a question, related to why EDT is said not to work.
Consider the following Newcomblike problem: A study shows that most people who two-box in Newcomblike problems as the following have a certain gene (and one-boxers don't have the gene). Now, Omega could put you into something like Newcomb's original problem, but instead of having run a simulation of you, Omega has only looked at your DNA: If you don't have the "two-boxing gene", Omega puts $1M into box B, otherwise box B is empty. And there is $1K in box A, as usual. Would you one-box (take only box B) or two-box (take box A and B)? Here's a causal diagram for the problem:
Since Omega does not do much other than translating your genes into money under a box, it does not seem to hurt to leave it out:
I presume that most LWers would one-box. (And as I understand it, not only CDT but also TDT would two-box, am I wrong?)
Now, how does this problem differ from the smoking lesion or Yudkowsky's (2010, p.67) chewing gum problem? Chewing Gum (or smoking) seems to be like taking box A to get at least/additional $1K, the two-boxing gene is like the CGTA gene, the illness itself (the abscess or lung cancer) is like not having $1M in box B. Here's another causal diagram, this time for the chewing gum problem:
As far as I can tell, the difference between the two problems is some additional, unstated intuition in the classic medical Newcomb problems. Maybe, the additional assumption is that the actual evidence lies in the "tickle", or that knowing and thinking about the study results causes some complications. In EDT terms: The intuition is that neither smoking nor chewing gum gives the agent additional information.
I was referring to "in principle", not to reality.
Yes. I think that if I couldn't do that, it wouldn't be me. If we don't permit people without the two-boxing gene to two-box (the question as originally written did, but we don't have to), then this isn't a game I can possibly be offered. You can't take me, and add a spooky influence which forces me to make a certain decision one way or the other, even when I know it's the wrong way, and say that I'm still making the decision. So again, we're at the point where I don't know why we're asking the question. If not-me has the gene, he'll do one thing; if not, he'll do the other; and it doesn't make a difference what he should do. We're not talking about agents with free action, here.
Again, I'm not sure exactly how this extends to the case where an agent doesn't know whether they have the gene.
What if we take the original Newcomb, then Omega puts the million in the box, and then tells you "I have predicted with 100% certainty that you are only going to take one box, so I put the million there?"
Could you two-box in that situation, or would that take away your freedom?
If you say you could two-box in that situation, then once again the original Newcomb and the genetic Newcomb are the same.
If you say you could not, why would that be you when the genetic case would not be?