as I had understood Stuart's article, the point was not to address decision theory, which is a mathematical subject, but instead that he hypothesized a scenario in which "the AI" was used to forecast possible future events, with humans in the loop doing the actual evaluation based on simulations realized in high detail, to the point that the future-world simulation would be as thorough as a film might be today, at which point it could appeal to people on a gut level and bypass their rational faculties
It's true that Stuart wrote about Oracle AI in his Siren worlds post, but I thought that was mostly just to explain the idea of what a Siren world is. Later on in the post he talks about how Paul Christiano's take on indirect normativity has a similar problem. Basically the problem can occur if an AI tries to model a human as accurately as possible, then uses the model directly as its utility function and tries to find a feasible future world that maximizes the utility function.
It seems plausible that even if the AI couldn't produce a high resolution simulation of a Siren world W, it could still infer (using various approximations and heuristics) that with high probability its utility function assigns a high score to W, and choose to realize W on that basis. It also seems plausible that an AI eventually would have enough computing power to produce high resolution simulations of Siren worlds, e.g., after it has colonized the galaxy, so the problem could happen at that point if not before.
but also have a bunch of other extra-scary features above and beyond other scenarios of people being irrational, just because.
What extra-scary features are you referring to? (Possibly I skipped over the parts you found objectionable since I was already familiar with the basic issue and didn't read Stuart's post super carefully.)
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
After working for some time on the Friendly AI problem, it's occurred to me that a lot of the issues seem related. Specifically, all the following seem to have commonalities:
Speaking very broadly, there are two features all them share:
What do I mean by that? Well, imagine you're trying to reach reflective equilibrium in your morality. You do this by using good meta-ethical rules, zooming up and down at various moral levels, making decisions on how to resolve inconsistencies, etc... But how do you know when to stop? Well, you stop when your morality is perfectly self-consistent, when you no longer have any urge to change your moral or meta-moral setup. In other words, the stopping point (and the the convergence to the stopping point) is entirely self-referentially defined: the morality judges itself. It does not include any other moral considerations. You input your initial moral intuitions and values, and you hope this will cause the end result to be "nice", but the definition of the end result does not include your initial moral intuitions (note that some moral realists could see this process dependence as a positive - except for the fact that these processes have many convergent states, not just one or a small grouping).
So when the process goes nasty, you're pretty sure to have achieved something self-referentially stable, but not nice. Similarly, a nasty CEV will be coherent and have no desire to further extrapolate... but that's all we know about it.
The second feature is that any process has errors - computing errors, conceptual errors, errors due to the weakness of human brains, etc... If you visualise this as noise, you can see that noise in a convergent process is more likely to cause premature convergence, because if the process ever reaches a stable self-referential state, it will stay there (and if the process is a long one, then early noise will cause great divergence at the end). For instance, imagine you have to reconcile your belief in preserving human cultures with your beliefs in human individual freedom. A complex balancing act. But if, at any point along the way, you simply jettison one of the two values completely, things become much easier - and once jettisoned, the missing value is unlikely to ever come back.
Or, more simply, the system could get hacked. When exploring a potential future world, you could become so enamoured of it, that you overwrite any objections you had. It seems very easy for humans to fall into these traps - and again, once you lose something of value in your system, you don't tend to get if back.
Solutions
And again, very broadly speaking, there are several classes of solutions to deal with these problems: