dlthomas comments on The Two-Party Swindle - Less Wrong

42 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 01 January 2008 08:38AM

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Comment author: dlthomas 12 December 2011 08:26:11PM 3 points [-]

I suppose it's possible that they're trying to get their base to vote, as opposed to not voting.

This. With low voter turnout, rallying the base is a far more effective strategy than competing for marginal voters.

Comment author: Nornagest 12 December 2011 10:16:50PM *  6 points [-]

That's intuitively plausible, and in fact I think it's likely to be true, but as it happens it's also a testable proposition. Voter turnout varies quite a bit among modern democracies: for some voting is mandatory, for others it's optional, and levels of enforcement vary among polities with mandatory voting. Do the dominant parties within high-turnout polities tend to be more moderate relative to the polity's baseline?

Unfortunately you also need to control for architecture -- first-past-the-post election systems, for example, are often thought to have polarizing effects. That makes testing a lot harder than it'd otherwise be, and scopes it out of my relatively modest familiarity with different political systems. But it should be feasible in principle.

Comment author: dlthomas 12 December 2011 10:53:29PM 0 points [-]

Agreed.