Trading off these element in an expected value framework ... is probably again a rather personal decision
If you aren't aware of the relevant decision theory, then I have good news for you!
I'm not sure this is true, at least in the narrow instance of rationalists trying to make maximally effective decisions based on well defined uncertainties. In principle, at least, it should be possible to calculate the value of information. Decision theory has a concept called the expected value of perfect information. If you're not 100% sure of something, but the cost of obtaining information is high (which it generally is in philosophy, as evidenced by the somewhat slow progress over the centuries.) and giving opportunities are shrinking (which they are for many areas, as conditions improve) then you probably want to risk giving sub-optimally by giving now vs later. The price of information is simply higher than the expected value.
Unfortunately, you might still need to make a judgement call to guesstimate the values to plug in.
Thanks! I hadn’t seen the formulae for the expected value of perfect information before. I haven’t taken the time to think them through yet, but maybe they’ll come in handy at some point.
In this thread, I would like to invite people to summarize their attitude to Effective Altruism and to summarise their justification for their attitude while identifying the framework or perspective their using.
Initially I prepared an article for a discussion post (that got rather long) and I realised it was from a starkly utilitarian value system with capitalistic economic assumptions. I'm interested in exploring the possibility that I'm unjustly mindkilling EA.
I've posted my write-up as a comment to this thread so it doesn't get more air time than anyone else's summarise and they can be benefit equally from the contrasting views.
I encourage anyone who participates to write up their summary and identify their perspective BEFORE they read the others, so that the contrast can be most plain.