JulianMorrison comments on Stop Voting For Nincompoops - Less Wrong

38 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 02 January 2008 06:00PM

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Comment author: mwengler 08 November 2012 02:15:11PM 2 points [-]

Good, we are adding facts to the examination of this question. As for facts:

1) The press is an outlier and wild claim discovery machine. I wonder what the average wait is? In my 37 years of voting I don't think I've ever waited more than 5 minutes, and that covers voting in New York, New Jersey, and California. If there were a way to come up with a mean, or even a 95th percentile value, I would imagine the mean would be < 5 minutes, and within minutes of the mean to buy a lottery ticket and I would expect the 95th percentiles to be down in the 15 minutes or less range, and for both voting and lottery ticket buying.

2) A quick google quickly turns up a story of a 4 hour line to buy lottery tickets. The analogy between a lottery where the expected payout has increased a lot and voting in a swing state where the expected influence of a single vote has increased a lot seems reasonable, and they both seem to result in outlier waits measured in hours.

Good point about the wait, though, but amazingly even in this respect buying lottery tickets seems similar to voting.